As the clock ticks and we count down the days to Christmas, Hannukah and other end of the year holidays, we are all unsure about how consumer confidence will affect holiday shopping. The outlook on our financial, economic and geopolitical state of being is not positive.

In the US, trade policies, inflation, domestic drama and political bifurcation continue to worry the American people. In the UK there are woes over fiscal policy and the cost of goods. France continues to be politically unstable. The Middle East and Africa are largely confident while sentiment is down in Asia Pacific, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Discounting has once again started in October, earlier than ever, but this is not the only incentive to spend. From Amazon’s Prime Day to China’s Singles’ Day and the global reach of Black Friday, today’s biggest shopping ‘holidays’ weren’t born from tradition—they were built by marketing. A few years ago I wrote about these promotional events that have forever changed the face of retail. What started as one day events have since then morphed into multi-day, even multi-week selling events which have lost their meaning. Consequently, we can’t help but ask…

Are we celebrating or consuming?

Consumers don’t really need a reason to shop but over the past forty some odd years retailers and marketers have invented holidays that are all about shopping. How did these days come about? What key learnings can be pulled and put into action for 2025? Have retailers created a monster – because why would anyone shop at full price anymore? Let’s dig in.

AMAZON PRIME DAY – July 8 – 11, and Prime Big Deal Days, October 7 – 8, 2025

Behemoth online marketplace Amazon created Prime Day in 2015 by making special offers to Prime members in nine countries for a 24-hour period as a celebration of Amazon’s 20th birthday. Normally the event takes place in July, but due to circumstances related to COVID-19 it was moved to mid-October in 2020. Subsequently, the company started running twice yearly Prime day events but now the October promotion, “Prime Big Deal Days, is poised as a kick-off to holiday shopping. Historically brands used Prime Day to build awareness and acquire customers; it was viewed as a marketing investment rather than a day to make high sales. Industry sources agree that it’s a successful means of gaining exposure while it can open the door to converting first time buyers into loyal customers.

Amazon encourages brands to offer a discount on a best seller, to propose a package deal to loyal customers, and to create exclusive Prime Day offers which stand out in search and product pages. Consumers who are Amazon Prime members may participate, however, they can sign up for the free trial during the promo period without making a commitment. Subscribers now total 240 Million vs 150 Million in 2019.

This year Amazon Prime Day took place in over 20 countries including Turkey, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, the UK, the UAE, the US, of course, and France. Sources estimate that Amazon Prime Day 2025 sales hit $24.1 billion worldwide while Prime Day Big Deals generated $9.1 billion in the US. The Beauty and Cosmetics category represented 25% of the sales.

SINGLE’S DAY / DOUBLE 11 – November 11th

Single’s Day began back in the 1990’s at Nanjing University when a group of single men decided this was the day to celebrate being single, a date abbreviated with the number 1 four times (11/11). By 2009, Alibaba, the enormous shopping platform in China, turned it into an online shopping event encouraging singletons to splurge on something for themselves. Although much of the promotional activity revolves around deep discounts, luxury brands participate by offering exclusive product, limited editions and generous gifts with purchase. Single’s Day has served as a barometer for consumer sentiment, especially in the luxury goods sector, in China and Asia.

The first event ran for 24 hours, featured 27 brands and generated roughly $7.8 million in gross merchandise volume (GMV). In 2024 the event ran for 28 days with Ecommerce sales coming in at $202.8 billion, according to estimates from data provider Syntun. This year Single’s Day was extended to a 37-day period beginning in mid-October, somewhat in reaction to lukewarm sales during China’s Golden Week holiday (April 29 – May 6, 2025). The strategy has not been well received by Chinese Gen Zers who are skeptical about the “discount illusion” – when retailers jack up the prices only to drastically cut them during promotional periods. You could even say there is a bit of a backlash as forum discussions are popping up with hashtags such as “reduceshoppingdesire” and “spendmoneywhereitcounts”. Preliminary data from Syntun, puts sales at $238,8 billion, about 18% ahead of last year.

Nevertheless, Single’s day has caught on in other countries especially in Southeast Asia, but also in Western Europe and in the US. Marketers can certainly see the opportunity. Take a look at some of the of emails I received encouraging me to partake.

BLACK FRIDAY & CYBER MONDAY – November 28th and December 1st, 2025

In the United States, the Thanksgiving holiday leads to a 4-day weekend for most people. Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, became the unofficial start to the holiday shopping season because so many Americans had the day off. In the 1980’s the day was referred to as Black Friday since it was the day that many retailers passed “into the black”, an accounting reference meaning they were now posting a profit. It was also the moment stores revealed holiday decorations and windows, but these moments have been starting earlier and earlier for years.

Estimates claim that over 100 countries in the world participate in Black Friday – although the day has no historic or emotional value outside of the US!

Cyber Monday was created in 2005 as an online match to Black Friday. The idea was that on Monday, people were back in their offices, at their desks where their internet service was better than anything they had at home – if they even had anything! Consequently retailers held off on starting online sales and promotions until Monday.

Although both days have their roots in American holidays, most countries in the world have some kind of “Black Friday” and many, including the UK, Canada, France, Portugal, Sweden, India and Japan have a Cyber Monday equivalent, although the actual day it happens may vary from the US. In recent years, here in France, Black Friday has become “Black Week” as once again retailers extend the promo period by tacking on days on either side of Friday.

TARIFF TRAUMA

While inflation is top of mind around the globe, the impact of tariffs – on consumer prices and on the health of many companies – is unclear. As we go to press, several high end brands have announced that they will not participate in promotional activity this year – citing tariffs and a conscious decision not to overstock as justification.

THE BOTTOM LINE: What’s it all Worth?

Let’s take a closer look at the value of these shopping events: in 2024 Cyber Monday sales tallied $13.3 billion, a 17,3% increase over 2023, while Black Friday took in $12.4 billion, and Amazon’s 2024 Prime Day netted close to $17 billion. Even if the sales volume from these three events were combined, they are eclipsed by Singles Day which hit a whopping $202,8 billion on Alibaba’s various platforms in 2024.

It does all leave me wondering, why does anyone shop at full price? A few reasons come to mind: if you have to have it now, if the item is available only in limited quantities, or if it’s a luxury good that doesn’t discount – such as artistic fragrance brands. Sometimes with fragrance the retailer offers a discount on select brands to get in on the game. It’s another short-sighted strategy to grapple with the increasing tendency of brands to raise prices to staggering levels, which no doubt, encourages the demand for dupes….but that is a subject for a future article.

THE ANALYSTS WEIGH IN ON 2025

With the shaky state of consumer confidence, analysts predict shoppers will spend on the goods they need rather than splurging on frivolous items. Here are other key insights:

• Consumers will be looking for good deals and strong values from all sources,

• Consumers, especially Gen Z, will use generative AI to find the best deals, to condense product reviews and to create shopping lists,

• Brand loyalty is not a given, consumers are looking for the best value, including value beyond price,

• Sustainability is still a key driver, most clearly for the US and UK customer,

• With Gen Z increasingly interested in vintage, resale and previously owned goods, brands will have to adapt to stay relevant,

• Brands need to rely on pushing core skus that are consistently bestsellers,

• Retailers need to offer a selection of giftables in a range of price points from low to luxury,

• Retailers can help cut down on the stress by offering curated gift ideas and recipient wish lists,

• Brand and Retailer Loyalty programs will rise to the forefront as price and value go hand in hand.

Will it be a Merry Christmas or will we be quoting Scrooge, “Bah! Humbug!”, declaring the holidays a time of reckless spending?

FINAL THOUGHTS

As marketers, we’ve succeeded in turning ordinary days into global retail phenomena. But with success comes saturation—and fatigue. Consumers are savvier than ever, questioning the authenticity of endless discounts and the illusion of savings. The real challenge isn’t inventing the next shopping holiday—it’s restoring meaning, trust, and value in the ones we already have. Whether that leads to more mindful consumption or just another campaign remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: marketing will always find a reason to sell-e-brate.

SOURCES

Amazon Prime Day 2025: History and What You Need to Know

Singles’ Day is a $150B holiday in China. Here’s why I think ‘11/11’ will catch on in the US

China's retailers extend Singles' Day to five weeks to revive spending | Reuters

5 Lessons from Prime Day: What Worked, What Didn’t, & What it Means for The Rest of 2025 - Rithum

Holiday shopping 2025: US consumers hunt for early deals | McKinsey

September 2025: Global consumer confidence stable for third consecutive month | Ipsos

2025 Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey | Deloitte Insights

Why Singles’ Day is under fire on Xiaohongshu | Jing Daily

MARKETING CREATED SHOPPING EVENTS AND WHAT THEY MEAN IN 2020

Britons set to spend £4 billion more this Black Friday despite scam fears - TheIndustry.beauty